The Sweep: Politics in a Post-Roe America
What to make of polls that show the Dobbs decision will help Democrats.
Axios was out this week with a new round of stories about why Democrats are confident that the abortion issue will help them this fall, noting that “Democrats see it as a mobilizing issue for suburban women in swing House districts across the country.”
Two polls released in the past 24 hours give Democrats hope the issue will move voters.
• A CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,591 adults found 50% of Democrats were more likely to vote based on the Roe ruling, while only 20% of Republicans said the same.
• In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll out this morning (941 adults), 78% of Democrats said the court's decision makes them more likely to vote this fall — 24 points higher than Republicans.
But those polls are meaningful only if the people they are talking to didn’t vote in 2018 or weren’t going to vote this time. And there’s very little evidence for either. I’ve said before I haven’t seen the data to convince me that abortion will affect the midterm election either way. Let me revisit some of those thoughts here: